Prediction surface

Tell me what happens next, and what to do about it.

The tape desk, the hub exchange board and the corridor pricing ledger each reported a table of what had already happened. Folded into this one surface they answer the only question a treasury asks: how long will this take, what will it cost, what can move against me, and what should I do first. Every number carries a p50, a p90, the drivers behind it and the manual-desk comparator — and the three reporting desks now live behind the forecast, as evidence for it rather than as work of their own.

Forecast · not a report

Release: every modelled outcome is inside tolerance.

Reliance Industries → Singapore · ₹475 cr · SGD — tape connecting

Indian party

Audited net worth ₹3,27,080 cr · FY 2024-25 (year ended 31 March 2025) · commitment outstanding ₹5,90,994 cr

Destination hub

Ticket ₹475 crEvidence pack 78%

Clearance

This packet will sit for about 21.9 minutes — evidence, not the corridor, is the delay.

Watch

p50

21.9 min

p90

38.3 min

Manual desk

28.0 d

Recommended action

Close the 3 open evidence items before release.

Each missing document converts an engine-cleared check into an officer-signed one, which is the only step measured in hours.

Then → Clearance falls to roughly 11.8 minutes.

Evidence pack: 78% complete
Route: ODI automatic
Section 195: Chargeability leg in scope
Filer history: Known filer

Model confidence 86%

All-in cost

The corridor prices at about 1014.01 bps all-in, treaty withholding included.

Watch

p50

1,014.01 bps

p90

1,024.91 bps

Manual desk

1,042.01 bps

Recommended action

Put the ticket to a second AD bank and quote 8 bps.

A ₹475 crore ticket at 14 bps carries ₹6.7 lakh of spread — the rail's observed floor for this corridor is materially tighter.

Then → All-in drops to roughly 1008.01 bps on the same statutory route.

AD Category-1 margin: 14 bps
Correspondent + cable: ₹3,481 (0.01 bps)
Treaty withholding: 10%
Ticket: ₹475 cr

Model confidence 91%

FX drift

The unhedged window on this ticket risks about ₹1.8 crore at 95% confidence.

Watch

p50

0.74 ₹ cr

p90

1.8 ₹ cr

Manual desk

4.32 ₹ cr

Recommended action

Book a same-day forward on SGD for the full ticket before release.

The approval leg holds the exposure open across sessions, and the modelled tail exceeds the corridor's entire fee stack.

Then → Residual exposure falls to roughly ₹0.22 crore of basis.

Settlement currency: SGD
Assumed vol: 5.2% annualised
Exposure window: 0.5 trading days
Drift since capture: no stamped reference

Model confidence 86%

Query risk

A 21.6% chance of a regulator query — and a query resets the clock, not the step.

Watch

p50

21.6 %

p90

30.3 %

Manual desk

41.1 %

Recommended action

Run the pre-flight evidence tracker and attach the valuation certificate and UBO chart before release.

Those two artefacts account for most observed queries on this corridor and route combination.

Then → Query probability falls to about 3%.

Evidence gap: 22%
Route: ODI
TRC / Form 10F: Required and validated on the ledger
Jurisdiction: Singapore — DTAA + LOB

Model confidence 88%

Statutory headroom

After this ticket the entity stands at 45.2% of its statutory ceiling, with ₹716851 crore left.

Clear

p50

45.2 % of ceiling

p90

50.6 % of ceiling

Manual desk

45.2 % of ceiling

Recommended action

Proceed on the automatic route.

Commitment after this ticket remains inside the ceiling tested against the last audited balance sheet.

Then → ₹716851 crore of headroom remains for the rest of the financial year.

Audited net worth: ₹3,27,080 cr
Ceiling: 400% — ₹13,08,320 cr
Commitment after this: ₹5,91,469 cr
Basis: FEM (Overseas Investment) Rules, 2022 — Rule 7 / Rule 13

Model confidence 95%

Priced off the same live tape that stamps the ledger — tape connecting.

Open the priced ledger

The tape these forecasts are priced on

Tape status

Syncing

Anchor

—

Desk open since

4:13:39 am

SGD/INR

Singapore Dollar

₹65.3595

▬ 0.0000 · session +0.000%

Intraday walk since this desk opened — 0 prints

Session high

₹65.3595

Session low

₹65.3595

475 cr buys

SGD 7,26,75,000

Notional (INR crore)

SGD/INR · 5-year movement · live tail

Singapore Dollar (SGD) against the Indian Rupee — settles 1 of the 52 hubs

Reading

₹65.359

Live print

5Y move

+14.9%

5Y high

₹68.19

5Y low

₹53.95

Annualised vol

6.9%

In plain words — the curve shows how many rupees one SGD has cost over the window. The pulsing dot on the right is the live streaming print; the treasury desk prices every action off that same print. History is a modelled prototype series anchored to the live spot, not a vendor tape.

Live tape — every settlement currency on the rail

Currency	INR per unit	Tick	Hubs settling in it
EUR Euro	₹94.3396	▬ 0.0000	11 · Luxembourg, Amsterdam, Dublin, Frankfurt …
USD US Dollar	₹86.9565	▬ 0.0000	5 · New York, GIFT IFSC, Chicago, San Francisco …
AED UAE Dirham	₹23.6967	▬ 0.0000	2 · Dubai (DIFC), Abu Dhabi (ADGM)
CHF Swiss Franc	₹102.0408	▬ 0.0000	2 · Zurich, Geneva
SGD Singapore Dollar	₹65.3595	▬ 0.0000	1 · Singapore
GBP Pound Sterling	₹112.3596	▬ 0.0000	1 · London
HKD Hong Kong Dollar	₹11.1732	▬ 0.0000	1 · Hong Kong
JPY Japanese Yen	₹0.5747	▬ 0.0000	1 · Tokyo
CNY Chinese Yuan	₹12.0627	▬ 0.0000	1 · Shanghai
KRW Korean Won	₹0.0641	▬ 0.0000	1 · Seoul
AUD Australian Dollar	₹56.4972	▬ 0.0000	1 · Sydney
CAD Canadian Dollar	₹62.8931	▬ 0.0000	1 · Toronto
SEK Swedish Krona	₹8.8496	▬ 0.0000	1 · Stockholm
NOK Norwegian Krone	₹8.2645	▬ 0.0000	1 · Oslo
DKK Danish Krone	₹12.6582	▬ 0.0000	1 · Copenhagen
PLN Polish Zloty	₹22.2222	▬ 0.0000	1 · Warsaw
ILS Israeli Shekel	₹23.753	▬ 0.0000	1 · Tel Aviv
SAR Saudi Riyal	₹23.2019	▬ 0.0000	1 · Riyadh
QAR Qatari Riyal	₹23.9234	▬ 0.0000	1 · Doha
BHD Bahraini Dinar	₹232.5581	▬ 0.0000	1 · Manama
OMR Omani Rial	₹227.2727	▬ 0.0000	1 · Muscat
KES Kenyan Shilling	₹0.6711	▬ 0.0000	1 · Nairobi
ZAR South African Rand	₹4.8309	▬ 0.0000	1 · Johannesburg
NGN Nigerian Naira	₹0.0575	▬ 0.0000	1 · Lagos
EGP Egyptian Pound	₹1.7857	▬ 0.0000	1 · Cairo
MUR Mauritian Rupee	₹1.8868	▬ 0.0000	1 · Mauritius
BRL Brazilian Real	₹16.129	▬ 0.0000	1 · São Paulo
MXN Mexican Peso	₹4.6948	▬ 0.0000	1 · Mexico City
CLP Chilean Peso	₹0.0901	▬ 0.0000	1 · Santiago
COP Colombian Peso	₹0.0216	▬ 0.0000	1 · Bogotá
THB Thai Baht	₹2.5641	▬ 0.0000	1 · Bangkok
MYR Malaysian Ringgit	₹19.6078	▬ 0.0000	1 · Kuala Lumpur
IDR Indonesian Rupiah	₹0.0053	▬ 0.0000	1 · Jakarta
VND Vietnamese Dong	₹0.0034	▬ 0.0000	1 · Ho Chi Minh City
PHP Philippine Peso	₹1.5152	▬ 0.0000	1 · Manila
LKR Sri Lankan Rupee	₹0.2899	▬ 0.0000	1 · Colombo

Hub movement — all 52 corridors on the current print

Qwen · reasoning

Statutory reasoning model reads the rule and the filing together, and writes the conclusion with the rule quoted.

LangChain · orchestration

Chains the retrieval, tool calls and checks in a fixed order so every filing is examined the same way.

Alibaba Cloud · compute

Runs the heavy document and screening workloads in an India-resident region.

Federated ledger

Each result is hash-chained into a block every regulator node holds a copy of.

Human desk

A named officer signs this off. The machine only prepares the file.

Ready list →Your to-do matrix, live Proof desk →Side-by-side vs the incumbents Corporate application desk →File the route and documents Automatic vs Approval routes →Intake, 3D execution, evidence AD bank processing →Bank rail, live tape Regulator approval desk →Six-regulator window Supervisor ledger →Read-only, append-only replay Section 195 engine →Royalty/FTS, TRC, 15CA/15CB Case file →Audit timeline and money pipeline Security theatre →Breach containment, live GIFT IFSC desk →Company in, hub out Mechanism matrix →Layer-by-layer build